While I think we could all use a quiet year, I can pretty much guarantee that 2025 is going to be wild. Anyone who thought that Trump’s pre-election rhetoric was just rhetoric is going to be in for a big surprise. Just looking at the proposed Cabinet tells you that the next Trump administration is not going to be business as usual. But overall I don’t think it will be as bad as Democrats fear, or as productive as his supporters expect. Oh, there will be significant changes, but many will not be able to be fully enacted (like mass deportations). Most of the changes will come from either Executive Orders or the actions within specific departments – on cost-cutting and layoffs for example – but not from Congress, as it it likely to be gridlocked.
So here we go – and as always these predictions are what I think is going to happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.
(Note – the first draft of this piece was written on December 1st. I had to make some changes because of today’s quickly-moving news. I did, however, leave some things in – like the fact that the hearing on the Supreme Court case mentioned in #6 was heard on December 4th. If I have left it in, it is unedited from my original thoughts but I felt it was important enough not to change.)
10 – Two more of Trump’s Cabinet picks will not be confirmed (they either withdraw or are defeated in the Senate). As of this writing, Hegseth is in big trouble but still hangin in. If he goes before the end of December, which I think is extremely likely, then I still think that there will be two more. The most likely others are Gabbard and Patel. Kennedy will get confirmed. Two of those confirmed will not last in their posts a year. Trump will have a falling out with Elon Musk and he will leave the administration before the end of the year; ditto for Ramaswamy. DOGE will fade into the sunset, but other Cabinet members will continue to slash the sizes of their respective workforces and pullback on some regulations.
9 – While the overall plan (if there is one) will remain unclear, deportation efforts will begin on Day 2 after a number of Executive Orders will be signed on Day 1. These efforts will be met with protests in the cities where these actions take place, most likely the sanctuary cities. The military will not be called in, and the situation will become calmer relatively quickly. More low key attempts at deportation will continue throughout the year – enough that Trump can show progress on the border – but as the year goes on other topics will take center stage, and the millions of expected deportations will not happen; the numbers will be much lower.
8 – Trump will probably start with some lower tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada than threatened, and through negotiations these tariffs will eventually be removed altogether. Again, Trump will attempt to show that he is keeping his campaign promises but the reality will be far less grandiose than what he has been talked about.
7 – The House will continue to flounder as the Republican majority will again be unable to come up with consensus on passing major legislation. Mike Johnson will fall out of favor with Trump and he will not last the year as Speaker of the House. Things in the Senate will be much quieter.
6 – The Supreme Court will have at least one if not more major decisions breaking with precedent (as they did in the Dobbs case) or affecting the rights of minorities. The first one could be the United States v. Skrmetti, which is actually being heard in December 2024 but the decision will be announced in 2025. The case is a challenge to a law that Tennessee enacted in 2023 to ban gender-affirming care for transgender patients under the age of 18. Other potential cases could impact gay marriage and other transgender issues.
5 – The Department of Justice and DOGE will go after some of Trump’s enemies but I think that this effort, like some of the other extreme campaign policies, will be far less encompassing than feared. The public will lose its appetite for these types of tactics and Trump will be forced to switch focus in order to maintain momentum and enact other parts of his agenda. Democrats will begin to slowly end their post-election belly-aching and there will be more bipartisan legislation that people currently anticipate. While the country remains divided, people are sick of the bickering.
4 – While not on Day 1, Trump will help negotiate a truce between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia essentially keeping the territory that is has seized. Ukraine simply cannot afford to keep the war going. The U.S. will not withdraw from NATO, and Russia will not invade any other countries. China will not invade Taiwan. 2025 will be the year that Netanyahu will leave office, although before he does, he will be empowered by his alliance with Trump. There will be a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, but a longer-term resolution to the conflict will remain up in the air as there is no consensus on who should ultimately run the territory. There will be no more progress toward a Palestinian State, as under a Trump presidency Israel will feel more empowered to build additional settlements in the West Bank. The ceasefire in the North with Lebanon will hold. About half of the hostages will ultimately be released alive.
3 – The economy will perform well as interest rates will continue to come down as the threat of tariffs (and inflation) recedes. The stock market will have an average year (7% to 10%) as technology will lag somewhat, taking a rest from its huge 2024. Small cap stocks will continue to outperform and there will be at least two short-term corrections to bring valuations back in line. Bitcoin will reach $150,000 as the crypto-friendly status of the new administration will provide a continued lift. Gold will also end 2025 at a record as well.
2 – The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will slow its interest rate cut plans early in the year over uncertainty over Trump’s tariff threats. As the year goes on, however, inflation will remain under control and the Fed will end up starting to cut rates again. The Federal Funds Rate will end the year at 3.5%, about 0.5% higher than previously estimated by most economists. The Commercial real estate market will have a good year, as companies continue to demand more time in the office, and the residential real estate market will struggle once again.
1 – Finally, the dreaded sports predictions ….. In my first draft, I reluctantly picked Ohio State because I thought that they were really good. Then my Wolverines shocked them. In reality, there are a lot of mediocre teams, but the tram that I think is playing the best, and will win it all is Notre Dame. Now, a caveat is that the loss to Michigan might motivate Ohio State to rebound and win it all, but I think that is not going to happen. And when they do lose, unless they win at least two games, Coach Day will be history. The Detroit Lions will win the Super Bowl, narrowly defeating the KC Chiefs and foiling their attempt at a three-peat. Kansas will win the NCAA Basketball Championship. The Dallas Stars will win the Stanley Cup, the Boston Celtics will repeat as NBA champs and the Los Angeles Dodgers will rebound and win the World Series. Now you know who to bet against!
I hope that everyone has a great 2025!
