I should have my head examined for even making predictions for 2021. I should probably just say that there will be a lot of uncertainty and leave it at that.
But that wouldn’t be fun – would it? So here I go again. As always, please keep in mind this is what I think will happen – not necessarily would I would like to see happen.
10 – President Trump will leave office and the White House on January 20th (he might in fact vacate the WH before that date) and Joe Biden will become our 46th President. Trump will not concede and he will not attend the inauguration. He will quickly associate himself with a right-leaning media organization (Newsmax, One America Network or Rush Limbaugh as examples) to either produce his own show or be a frequent guest. He will also explore starting his own media empire. His talk of running again in 2024 will fade as the year progresses but his influence within the GOP will persist.
9 – President Trump will pardon his children and many of his close associates (Rudy) before he leaves office (some of these might take place in 2020 after this is posted), but he will not attempt to pardon himself. While the Democrats in Congress will not begin a large number of investigations into Trump and his allies in an attempt to cool the partisan atmosphere in Washington, expect NY State to quickly and vigorously investigate The Trump Organization and the President’s other business dealings.
8- I went back and forth on this one, but made a last minute decision to predict that the Democrats will win the two Georgia Senate seats and essentially take control of the Senate with Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote. Why did I change my mind? Because I just read that more people have already voted by mail (December 21st) than did in total in the November general election. Such high turn out favors the Democrats as does President Trump’s continued criticism of Georgia election officials, which could lead to low turnout on the Republican side. Ironically, Susan Collins (who almost lost her re-election bid) and other moderate Senators like Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski will yield more day-to-day power than Majority Leader McConnell, as their willingness to work across the aisle will give them powerful leverage in determining the success/failure of Biden’s agenda in such an evenly split Senate.
7 – The Senate will block at least two of Biden’s nominees, but the Secretary of Defense will be confirmed with a waiver. There will be another major stimulus bill passed within the first 60 days of the new administration and a major infrastructure bill will pass in the first half of the year. Given the small House majority, however, there will not be a major tax bill passed; any changes will be smaller and more targeted. Efforts will also be made early in the year in reestablishing our international standing and willingness to reengage with the rest of the world, especially with fears of a Taliban resurgence in the face of recent U.S. troop withdrawals from the region.
6 – There will be one or two additional new Covid-19 vaccines approved in the first quarter, and everyone who wants to be vaccinated in the U.S. will be able to be by the end of June. The Biden Administration will increase overall confidence in the vaccine and herd immunity will be reached in time for the start of school in the Fall. (Trying to be optimistic and realistic here.) Life will not get back to near normalcy, however, until at least January 2022.
5 – Executive orders will make rejoining the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization early highlights of the Biden Administration, but entering into a new deal with Iran will prove to be more tricky. I don’t envision any new deal (or modification of the existing one) during 2021. There will be little progress with North Korea, and the two leaders will not meet.The U.S. will sign a trade deal with the UK.
4 – Biden’s efforts to re-engage with our allies should help lesson NATO clashes. Tensions with Russia will rise, especially in light of the recent evidence of ongoing hacking, and I expect some significant new sanctions will be put into place. Relations with China will be tense as well, fueled by the Trump administration’s late 2020 exit from the Open Skies Treaty, but I expect less trade war rhetoric and fewer sanctions. There will be continued progress with Israel and other Middle Eastern government normalizing relations, but I expect fewer U.S. concessions to make this happen. Relations with Israel will remain good, but I don’t expect Biden and Netanyahu to have a close relationship. The leadership succession plan in Germany will finally become clearer. Boris Johnson’s popularity will continue to decline, especially after his botched handling of Christmas, but he will survive the year as leader; he will not, however, learn how to use a comb.
3 – The economy will go into another mini-recession early in the year because of the delay in passing a stimulus bill until late Q42020 and the lingering effects of this new strain of Covid-19. As more people get vaccinated, however, and the spread of the virus slows post-holidays, the economy will pick-up quickly IF there is another stimulus bill and a comprehensive infrastructure bill. If either of these efforts stalls, the recession will be longer and deeper. In any case, economic growth should pick-up in the last quarter of the year as the travel and entertainment sectors begin to recover. The outlook for these industries remains bleak, however, as it will be years before things are back to near normal.
2 – The stock market will continue on its upward trajectory, but as always it is a market of stocks – and industry performance will vary significantly. The stay at home trend is here to stay even when herd immunity is reached. More people will be working remotely, and people have gotten used to the new normal. I don’t expect to see people running back to gyms and entertainment venues when they have invested in equipment at home. As a whole the market will be up 3% – 5% for the year, with technology stocks continuing to perform well even with a somewhat struggling economy. Bitcoin and others cryptocurrencies will continue to become more mainstream in what is quickly becoming a cashless society amidst concerns over touching objects in public.
1 – Finally, sports – which has been my achilles heel for the past few years. Ohio State will win the college football national championship with an asterisk, since they only played six games. This was my second last minute change. I originally had Ohio State, then switched to Clemson because I didn’t think the Buckeyes looked so good against Northwestern. BUT I just read that Saban and Swinney both ranked OSU out of their final Top Four. This will serve as a great motivator for Ohio State and they should have most if not all of the 20+ players that were out of the last game back. Revenge is a great motivator (in my humble option it is ND that should have been left out of the top four). The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl. Gonzaga will win the college basketball national championship. The following teams will repeat as champions – the Los Angeles Dodgers in baseball, the Tampa Bay Lightening in Hockey and the Los Angeles Lakers in basketball.
