As 2012 comes to a close, it’s time to make predictions for next year. With no election, I at first thought it might be difficult to come up with predictions, but as I began to write down some ideas, I found that there is indeed a lot going on worthy of discussion. Unfortunately, I am anticipating a difficult 2013, in large part driven by political uncertainty here and abroad. Here goes:

10 – Regardless of how the current fiscal cliff negotiations end (I am thinking there will be a small deal to get us through either just before or just after Dec. 31), no grand bargain will take place next year – on either tax reform or entitlement reform. Obama’s continued campaigning to rally public support for his ideas has ensured that Republicans will do almost anything to block him next year. Not saying that this behavior is right – it’s just inevitable.

9 – The one area where we will see major legislation is immigration reform. The Republicans desperately need an image boost here, and so this is the one exception where the two parties will work together to pass something. (Given the events in Newtown next week, there will be some movement on gun control, perhaps a ban on assault weapons, but more far-reaching gun control will be hard to attain.)

8 – The Euro crisis will deepen once again after a relatively quiet 2012. Italian elections could become a farce, and Greece, Spain and Portugal remain trouble spots. I don’t see any exits from the Euro in 2013, but I do expect more dissent from the populaces of the Northern European countries.

7 – By the end of 2013 Hillary Clinton will strongly signal (if not outright declare) her intention to run for President in 2016.

6 – Merkel will win re-election in Germany, but her victory will be very small and her party will be weakened as German voters show their displeasure over the continued drain the Euro crisis is having on the country.

5 – The stock market will be down for the year, perhaps by 10%. I think January is going to be a very tough month as realty sets in that the country’s finances are in real trouble. Even if the fiscal cliff is partially solved, it will hit home that tax rates are going to go up (in part because of some of the provisions of Obamacare going into effect) and people will realize that the recovery is not as strong as believed. Encouraging employment numbers will reverse, and the reality will set in that the numbers have been skewed by more people leaving the work force – which is not a positive sign.

4 – The US economy will not go into a major  recession, though it may come close and may even technically experience a minor recession. As stated above, I see growth slowing. I also see declines in consumer sentiment and business confidence, but I don’t think the slowdown will be enough to push us into a major downdraft.

Specifically for financial services:

3 – I do see a major deal being announced among the major wirehouses – Bank of America Merrill Lynch, UBS, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. I’m not sure what it’s going to look like – perhaps a bank selling off its wealth management division – but something major is going to take place.

2 – I see continued consolidation in the asset management arena, with a number of major deals being announced. Firms will continue to find it hard to go it alone, and will benefit from the operational synergies of combining forces.

1 – RIAs will continue to make news by taking advisors from the wirehouses, but I think the wirehouses will hold their own and have a pretty decent year. The negative news about the brokerage arms of these institutions will continue to abate.

Those are my top ten – but as I am doing them – I realize that I have to add two more:

11 – While I don’t see major changes to Dodd/Frank, I do think the banks are going to be beat-up on by Elizabeth Warren in her new role on the Senate Banking Committee. Bashing banks seems to be in vogue, and perhaps if my other predictions of other major legislation getting bogged down come true, the Democrats might use the banks as their way to show how tough they are.

12 – Alabama will win the BCS Championship and the 49ers the Super Bowl. You can’t have predictions without sports, now can you?

As we approach the new year, according to at least one poll, advisors and their clients aren’t on the same page. Clients are  more worried about the outlook for the economy in 2013 than their advisors are, with implication that advisors should put their optimism aside for a minute and concentrate on how they can address their client’s concerns.

First, the poll itself, which was conducted by SEI, a provider of fund processing and investment management outsourcing services. 86% of the 275 advisors polled felt that the economy will be better or the same in 2013 than it was in 2012. However, 73% of these advisors also said that their clients are apprehensive or fearful about the prospects for the year ahead. Less than 1% felt that their clients were optimistic about the year ahead.

Additionally, while 75% of the advisors polled said that they were better off than they were in 2012 as compared to four years ago, only 55% thought that their clients would share that opinion about themselves.  This second point is pretty scary if you think about it. If more advisors think that they are better off than their clients are, what does that say about how they have performed over the time period? If I felt that way about my clients, I would be very worried about losing many of them, wouldn’t you?

Many of these same advisors expressed concern over what is going on with the fiscal cliff and government dysfunction, which is somewhat at odds with their optimism for the economy. In any case, the most important implication for advisors is that regardless of your personal feelings for the outlook for the year ahead, it’s vital that you put these feelings aside and ask yourself  how you can reassure your clients about their concerns.

Hey, it’s great if you are optimistic about the coming year and beyond. But you and your clients will be best served if you can frame this optimism and explain it in such a way that it makes clients feel better and helps them feel more comfortable about their own financial futures. After all, that is what your job is. And only if clients feel better about their own outlook will they remain loyal to you. Remember – it should always be about them, not about you.

So much of the focus today in the advisor world is on the relative growth of RIAs vis-a-vis their competition at wirehouses and other traditional B/Ds, what often gets lost is the investors that they are all going after. And recent statistics show a worrisome trend – the trend of investors deciding to “do-it-themselves” has taken on momentum.

This trend favors banks and self-directed firms and the expense of full-service firms. According to a recent study by Hearts & Wallets, most firms showed a decline between 2011 and 2012 in investors “intent to invest more” and “intent to recommend.” (Two exceptions were Vanguard and T. Rowe Price.) Full-service brokerages share of households with $1 million or more to invest fell from 36% in 2011 to 32% in 2012. On the other hand, banks share increased from 13% to 17% during the same period of time; the survey data used included 5,400 households. According to the results, less than 2/3 of investors now use an investment professional.

The question is, why are investors so frustrated? The study indicates that investors:

• Don’t understand their advisors’ (or potential advisors) value proposition
• Don’t understand the pricing models; and
• Don’t feel that they have a way to evaluate advisors other than using absolute return.

I actually see some good news in this. All three of these frustrations, while understandable, are easily addressed. Let’s take them one at a time.

If an advisor doesn’t have an easily understandable and visible value proposition which they can articulate, then they don’t deserve the business. Whether you have an elevator speech, a tag line or a mission statement, you better make it clear very early on why you are different from the thousands of other advisors out there. If you don’t, shame on you.

As for pricing, if you aren’t upfront about your pricing, and if it isn’t fully transparent, then you have a problem. This is another issue that if addressed head-on early in the relationship can actually be used as a selling and differentiating point. If you wait until the client has to ask about it, then it’s probably too late.

And on the measurement issue, advisors would be well served to adapt some version of goals-based analysis. If you take the time upfront to learn about the client, help them define goals and milestones, and show them a pathway to get there (and measure progress along the way), you should have a long-term client; if you don’t, then maybe you’re in the wrong business.

There is great opportunity for those advisors that rise to the occasion – because I have no doubt that many of these investors who try to go it along are going to be very unhappy with the results and will be looking for an advisor again very soon.

PriceMetrix, a leading industry think tank, recently issued a new report entitled “Moneyball For Advisors.” The study’s name is a takeoff on Michael Lewis’ book which detailed how the Oakland A’s used statistics – rather than high priced players – to assemble a championship-caliber baseball team. If you would like a copy of the study, please contact me.

The question PriceMetrix set out to answer is whether or not analytics can be used to gain an informal advantage in recruiting and advisor development. Their answer – and the data do seem to support it – is definitely yes. While I will focus on how advisors can learn from this study, PriceMetrix also analyzed the data in a way that should help recruiters and companies hire advisors who have a better chance of succeeding in the long-run (and thus in many cases justifying the paying of a large up-front bonus).

So, according to the statistics, what should advisors do to maximize their future production?

• Maximize the percentage of fee-based business in their book;
• Have a high number of households with more than $250,000 in assets;
• Have a willingness to “fire” households with less than $250,000 (and to minimize the number of them);
• Have deep client relationships (measured by multiple accounts per client and having a large number of retirement accounts); and
• Be experienced – all other things being equal, past success bodes well for future success.

Advisors can control every aspect of their future production except for the last one. While there is little new in these results, they do reinforce much of today’s conventional wisdom.

As advisors consider their 2013 business plans, unless they have a natural niche that goes against conventional wisdom (and I will be the first to admit that some advisors do and can do well in these areas), they should target larger clients where there is the potential to build a deeper relationship by capturing more assets (and more family members if possible), and they should focus their sales and asset management on fee-based (or recurring) assets.

Food for thought to any advisor looking to the future.

(As a side note, one of the reasons I like to use PriceMetrix, and have confidence in their reports, is the breadth of their sample size. This study use aggregated retail brokerage data representing 6 million investors, 500 million transactions, 1.6 million fee-based accounts, 7 million transactional accounts and over $3.5 trillion in investment assets.)