While I think we could all use a quiet year, I can pretty much guarantee that 2025 is going to be wild. Anyone who thought that Trump’s pre-election rhetoric was just rhetoric is going to be in for a big surprise. Just looking at the proposed Cabinet tells you that the next Trump administration is not going to be business as usual. But overall I don’t think it will be as bad as Democrats fear, or as productive as his supporters expect. Oh, there will be significant changes, but many will not be able to be fully enacted (like mass deportations). Most of the changes will come from either Executive Orders or the actions within specific departments – on cost-cutting and layoffs for example – but not from Congress, as it it likely to be gridlocked.

So here we go – and as always these predictions are what I think is going to happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.

(Note – the first draft of this piece was written on December 1st. I had to make some changes because of today’s quickly-moving news. I did, however, leave some things in – like the fact that the hearing on the Supreme Court case mentioned in #6 was heard on December 4th. If I have left it in, it is unedited from my original thoughts but I felt it was important enough not to change.)

10 – Two more of Trump’s Cabinet picks will not be confirmed (they either withdraw or are defeated in the Senate). As of this writing, Hegseth is in big trouble but still hangin in. If he goes before the end of December, which I think is extremely likely, then I still think that there will be two more. The most likely others are Gabbard  and Patel. Kennedy will get confirmed. Two of those confirmed will not last in their posts a year. Trump will have a falling out with Elon Musk and he will leave the administration before the end of the year; ditto for Ramaswamy. DOGE will fade into the sunset, but other Cabinet members will continue to slash the sizes of their respective workforces and pullback on some regulations.

9 – While the overall plan (if there is one) will remain unclear, deportation efforts will begin on Day 2 after a number of Executive Orders will be signed on Day 1. These efforts will be met with protests in the cities where these actions take place, most likely the sanctuary cities. The military will not be called in, and the situation will become calmer relatively quickly. More low key attempts at deportation will continue throughout the year – enough that Trump can show progress on the border – but as the year goes on other topics will take center stage, and the millions of expected deportations will not happen; the numbers will be much lower.

8 – Trump will probably start with some lower tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada than threatened, and through negotiations these tariffs will eventually be removed altogether. Again, Trump will attempt to show that he is keeping his campaign promises but the reality will be far less grandiose than what he has been talked about.

7 – The House will continue to flounder as the Republican majority will again be unable to come up with consensus on passing major legislation. Mike Johnson will fall out of favor with Trump and he will not last the year as Speaker of the House. Things in the Senate will be much quieter.

6 – The Supreme Court will have at least one if not more major decisions breaking with precedent (as they did in the Dobbs case) or affecting the rights of minorities. The first one could be the United States v. Skrmetti, which is actually being heard in December 2024 but the decision will be announced in 2025. The case is a challenge to a law that Tennessee enacted in 2023 to ban gender-affirming care for transgender patients under the age of 18. Other potential cases could impact gay marriage and other transgender issues.

5 – The Department of Justice and DOGE will go after some of Trump’s enemies but I think that this effort, like some of the other extreme campaign policies, will be far less encompassing than feared. The public will lose its appetite for these types of tactics and Trump will be forced to switch focus in order to maintain momentum and enact other parts of his agenda. Democrats will begin to slowly end their post-election belly-aching and there will be more bipartisan legislation that people currently anticipate. While the country remains divided, people are sick of the bickering.

4 – While not on Day 1, Trump will help negotiate a truce between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia essentially keeping the territory that is has seized. Ukraine simply cannot afford to keep the war going. The U.S. will not withdraw from NATO, and Russia will not invade any other countries. China will not invade Taiwan. 2025 will be the year that Netanyahu will leave office, although before he does, he will be empowered by his alliance with Trump. There will be a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, but a longer-term resolution to the conflict will remain up in the air as there is no consensus on who should ultimately run the territory. There will be no more progress toward a Palestinian State, as under a Trump presidency Israel will feel more empowered to build additional settlements in the West Bank. The ceasefire in the North with Lebanon will hold. About half of the hostages will ultimately be released alive.

3 – The economy will perform well as interest rates will continue to come down as the threat of tariffs (and inflation) recedes. The stock market will have an average year (7% to 10%) as technology will lag somewhat, taking a rest from its huge 2024. Small cap stocks will continue to outperform and there will be at least two short-term corrections to bring valuations back in line. Bitcoin will reach $150,000 as the crypto-friendly status of the new administration will provide a continued lift. Gold will also end 2025 at a record as well.

2 – The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will slow its interest rate cut plans early in the year over uncertainty over Trump’s tariff threats. As the year goes on, however, inflation will remain under control and the Fed will end up starting to cut rates again. The Federal Funds Rate will end the year at 3.5%, about 0.5% higher than previously estimated by most economists. The Commercial real estate market will have a good year, as companies continue to demand more time in the office, and the residential real estate market will struggle once again.

1 – Finally, the dreaded sports predictions ….. In my first draft, I reluctantly picked Ohio State because I thought that they were really good. Then my Wolverines shocked them. In reality, there are a lot of mediocre teams, but the tram that I think is playing the best, and will win it all is Notre Dame. Now, a caveat is that the loss to Michigan might motivate Ohio State to rebound and win it all, but I think that is not going to happen. And when they do lose, unless they win at least two games, Coach Day will be history. The Detroit Lions will win the Super Bowl, narrowly defeating the KC Chiefs and foiling their attempt at a three-peat. Kansas will win the NCAA Basketball Championship. The Dallas Stars will win the Stanley Cup, the Boston Celtics will repeat as NBA champs and the Los Angeles Dodgers will rebound and win the World Series. Now you know who to bet against!

I hope that everyone has a great 2025!

Another crazy year is about to come to an end. Before I make my predictions for 2025, let’s review how I did this year. (Year-end comments in bold below).

While I was hoping that the world wouldn’t get any more chaotic in 2023, that indeed has not been the case. From an unexpected war in Gaza, to the unceremonious “firing” of the Speaker of the House, to a near-coup in Russia. Let’s not forget multiple indictments and a civil conviction of a former President – all of which are actually bolstering his re-election campaign – and the highly unusual expulsion of a Congressmen by the House of Representatives.

And now we enter the all-important Presidential election year which all but assures that things will not normalize (whatever that even means anymore). I really should have my head examined for wading in here, but I can’t resist a challenge! Here we go (and as always – this is what I predict will happen – not necessarily what I want to happen).

(Things are moving so fast and furious these days I waited until the last minute to publish this as some of my predictions in draft form were already becoming outdated! Under number two I had predicted that Kevin McCarthy would not run for re-election – he beat me to the punch!)

10 – Joe Biden will be re-elected President of the United States. While the odds seem stacked against him today, and while I would love to predict that we won’t have the universally hated Biden-Trump rematch, we will. There is a long time between now and election day. Trump’s recent misstep over calling for the unpopular (even among Republicans) repeal of Obamacare, to his increasing blunders in speeches, to his talk of a one-day dictatorship, show that there is plenty of time for Biden to gain momentum. At the end of the day, concerns over Biden’s age will take a back seat to the prospects of a second Trump term.

(I am going to add a caveat here because, as mentioned above, the world is moving at warp speed right now and both candidates are older and facing other issues which may negatively impact or even end their runs. In the highly unlikely event Trump is not on the ballot, Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee and she will win the Presidency. On the flip side, if something happens to Biden, the Democratic nominee will be Gavin Newsom – by reason of default – and he would beat Trump but lose to Haley.) What can I say? I don’t think anyone would have seen this coming, certainly not the almost last minute replacement of Biden by Harris and the unexpected Republican sweep. Perhaps the more clairvoyant among us would have been able to predict how much more conservative the electorate at large has become and how anxious they were to get the Democrats out of power. The pollsters certainly didn’t!

There will be a lot of second guessing for a long time. In retrospect, Biden stayed in the race too long, and by even running at all he will lose a lot of the good will he garnered by helping remove Trump in the first place. Many people held their noses and picked what seemed to be the lesser of two evils. While I get that, it’s still hard for me to believe that given everything that has gone on, Trump not only became president again, but is the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. He has already achieved his first goal before inauguration – many if not all of the legal cases against him will likely go away.

9 – The Republicans will recapture the Senate, while Democrats will retake the House. There are just too many Democratic seats up in 2024 in the Senate. West Virginia will almost certainly go to a Republican, and Democratic seats in states like Ohio are truly up for grabs. In a bright spot for Democrats, Ted Cruz is going to lose to Colin Allred in the Texas Senate race. On the House side, the Republicans have shown themselves to be unable to govern effectively, and many of the gains from the last election, particularly in New York State, will be lost. It won’t be a huge majority for the Democrats though – probably between 5 and 10 seats. The right wing of the Republican party will also gain seats within their caucus heading into the new Congress in 2025. The Senate went almost as expected while Republicans kept the House, perhaps another byproduct of the anger of the country that was underestimated. The Republicans did lose seats in NY State as expected, and governing will be difficult with a slim majority that will at least for the first few months of the administration be even smaller because of Trump’s selection of a number of members of Congress for his Cabinet. Finally, Allred’s loss was disappointing and larger than expected. Cruz was able to use the anti-woke momentum to his advantage.

8 – There will be one short government shutdown in either January or February (when the two short-term continuing resolutions expire), but it will only last a few days. TheRepublicans will likely be blamed for the shutdown, and they will want to minimize the negative press in an election year and will quickly compromise; by forcing a shutdown they are just trying to make a point of showing how fiscally responsible they are so that they can use the issue to campaign on. Mike Johnson will survive as Speaker through the election, although his popularity will continue to decline within the Republican Caucus. (New leadership elections won’t take place until early 2025 so no predictions yet – but as an early hint to my 2025 predictions – there will be a lot of leadership changes in the next Congress.) There was technically a shutdown for a few hours early in the year, as the President did not sign the bill until after midnight. Inflation and immigration were the topics that dominated the election, so this issue was really a non-event. Johnson has survived and is a big winner with the Trump win. However, the far right of the Party remains strong and his razor thin margin will be hard to manage.

7 – There will be an agreement in early January which provides funding to Ukraine and Israel and will include a compromise on the border (but the legislation will not be as strong as the majority of Republicans would like to see). Since it is an election year, no other major legislation will be enacted into law. The focus, other than the election, will be on how to deal with, and regulate, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and how to reign in Cryptocurrencies in light of the recent collapses of a number of Crypto exchanges. The House will continue its investigation of President Biden, which is now an official Impeachment inquiry, but it will not go to trial. The Republicans will realize by mid-year that the issue is hurting them in the polls and they will quietly put it aside to focus on the election. Right on Ukraine and Israel funding, but Trump helped kill any immigration bill which ultimately helped him win the election. Biden was not impeached and the whole issue did go away quietly.

6 – Turning overseas, Benjamin Netanyahu will lose his job as Prime Minister of Israel and be replaced by Benny Gantz. I am not sure if there will be any post-mortem on what happened on October 7th in 2024, but if there is, Netanyahu will shoulder most of the blame for the lack of preparedness for the attack. The Israeli ground offensive will end early in the year and troops will withdraw from Gaza before mid-year, as Israel will recognize that any continued occupation brings with it diminishing returns. Some international or UN peace keeping force will move in as a temporary solution (pressure from the U.S. will force Israel’s hand here) as the world tries to find a way to have the Palestine Authority take over (either in its current form or more likely in some kind of makeover so that it is not perceived as being corrupt). While tensions will remain high in the region, and flareups in the West Bank and in the North will continue, no further war will begin – none of the parties can really afford it. Iran-backed rebels will also pull back from their attacks on ships in the Red Sea as the U.S. will used continued military force to deter them. Netanyahu has proven to be extremely cagey and has been able to hold his fragile coalition together and remain in power, and out of court and perhaps jail as he faces his own corruption charges. The war in Gaza continues and war did break out with Hezbollah in the North, and tensions with Iran did increase – so I pretty much missed this one! 

5 – 2024 will indeed by the year that Putin loses power in Russia (and possibly his life). The change in leadership will finally lead to a cease fire and negotiations that will end the war, as the Russian people have lost patience for the war and the new leadership will realize that they simply can’t win in any case. Russia will withdraw its troops from Ukraine but remain in Crimea – so by the end of 2024 we will basically be back to where we were before this senseless and costly war. So much for my bold international predictions about leadership changes. Putin remains in power and there were no talks of, or movement toward, a ceasefire. 2025 may prove to be different – stay tuned!

4 – North Korea will continue to be provocative , but other than saber-rattling, will pose no real threat to the rest of the world. China will once again be consumed by domestic economic issues, so there will be no invasion of Taiwan. In fact, the fall of Putin will actually help bring the U.S. and China a little closer and may even bring the return of the Pandas! Trudeau will continue to lose support in Canada; while I don’t see an early election, it will become clear that his future as leader is in doubt. Ditto for Macron in France, whose popularity will also continue to fall. There will be a general election called in the UK (the PM could wait until mid-December to call an election, which would mean that the election would take place in early 2025, but I don’t think he will wait that long) and Labor will regain power. Did better here! Most importantly, the Pandas are back! Labor did win the UK elections, Trudeau and Macron are both floundering, and North Korea was quiet – other than the unexpected late-year move to send troops to help Russia in its war efforts. China/U.S. relations were relatively quiet, but again, stay tuned to 2025 and the new Trump administration.

3 – While it will be close, and the data is mixed and hard to read, I think that the U.S. will avoid going into recession in 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates again, and in fact there will be three interest rate cuts during the year. The stock market will end the year up less than 5%, with good economic news at home being counterbalanced by global geopolitical uncertainty. AI stocks will continue to outperform, but will not perform nearly as well as they did in 2023. There will be continuing trouble in the commercial real estate market, but the residential real estate markets will pick-up as interest rates go down. Mixed here. The U.S. did not go into recession and since I published this before the December Fed meeting, I am not sure if I was right on the three interest rate cuts – there were at least two. The stock market did better than I anticipated, and AI stocks had an up and down year, though performed well overall. I was wrong on the real estate markers – as the commercial problems I anticipated have not yet materialized and interest rates have not gone down enough yet to help residential.

2 – Miscellaneous people thoughts: Elon Musk will continue to do what he does – be provocative and controversial. X will continue to lose advertisers and subscribers, and its very existence will be called into question by year-end. By then, I’m not sure anyone, including Musk, will really care. Trump’s Truth Social will file for bankrupcy. And speaking of Trump, he will be convicted at least once as he campaigns throughout the year. Tucker Carlson will not be Trump’s running mate; in fact, he will end up picking someone pretty mainstream (Sarah Huckabee Sanders, perhaps?) not someone from the MTG/Gaetz side. Jim Harbaugh will leave Michigan for the NFL. And the romance between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will end (sorry). Mixed here. X continues to bleed users, but survives and Truth Social rallied after the election. Harbaugh did leave for the NFL, but I was wrong about Taylor and Travis – their romance continues! Musk was certainly provocative and controversial – and that is sure to continue …..

1 – Finally, my achilles heel in recent years, sports. This is what I wrote in my first draft of this blog on 12/2 before the season’s final games: “I just can’t see Georgia going undefeated for three straight years. And I know if I pick my Wolverines I will jinx them, so I am going to go ahead and predict that the Washington Huskies will win the national championship and keep my fingers crossed that I am wrong.” Now that the games are over and the four teams have been selected, I am going to switch to the Alabama Crimson Tide winning it all. The San Francisco 49ers will win the Super Bowl (I am sticking with this pick even though they lost badly to the Ravens on Christmas Eve; even if this becomes the Super Bowl match-up, it’s hard to beat the same team twice).  Purdue will win the NCAA basketball tournament. The Milwaukee Bucks will reclaim the title of NBA champs, and the New York Rangers will win the Stanley Cup. Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the World Series. ( I actually drafted this last prediction before they signed Ohtani.) I don’t care that I missed all of these predictions because my Wolverines won it all! And they beat Alabama and Washington in the process! Closest of the professional picks was the Dodgers – at least they made the World Series!

While I was hoping that the world wouldn’t get any more chaotic in 2023, that indeed has not been the case. From an unexpected war in Gaza, to the unceremonious “firing” of the Speaker of the House, to a near-coup in Russia. Let’s not forget multiple indictments and a civil conviction of a former President – all of which are actually bolstering his re-election campaign – and the highly unusual expulsion of a Congressmen by the House of Representatives.

And now we enter the all-important Presidential election year which all but assures that things will not normalize (whatever that even means anymore). I really should have my head examined for wading in here, but I can’t resist a challenge! Here we go (and as always – this is what I predict will happen – not necessarily what I want to happen).

(Things are moving so fast and furious these days I waited until the last minute to publish this as some of my predictions in draft form were already becoming outdated! Under number two I had predicted that Kevin McCarthy would not run for re-election – he beat me to the punch!)

10 – Joe Biden will be re-elected President of the United States. While the odds seem stacked against him today, and while I would love to predict that we won’t have the universally hated Biden-Trump rematch, we will. There is a long time between now and election day. Trump’s recent misstep over calling for the unpopular (even among Republicans) repeal of Obamacare, to his increasing blunders in speeches, to his talk of a one-day dictatorship, show that there is plenty of time for Biden to gain momentum. At the end of the day, concerns over Biden’s age will take a back seat to the prospects of a second Trump term.

(I am going to add a caveat here because, as mentioned above, the world is moving at warp speed right now and both candidates are older and facing other issues which may negatively impact or even end their runs. In the highly unlikely event Trump is not on the ballot, Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee and she will win the Presidency. On the flip side, if something happens to Biden, the Democratic nominee will be Gavin Newsom – by reason of default – and he would beat Trump but lose to Haley.)

9 – The Republicans will recapture the Senate, while Democrats will retake the House. There are just too many Democratic seats up in 2024 in the Senate. West Virginia will almost certainly go to a Republican, and Democratic seats in states like Ohio are truly up for grabs. In a bright spot for Democrats, Ted Cruz is going to lose to Colin Allred in the Texas Senate race. On the House side, the Republicans have shown themselves to be unable to govern effectively, and many of the gains from the last election, particularly in New York State, will be lost. It won’t be a huge majority for the Democrats though – probably between 5 and 10 seats. The right wing of the Republican party will also gain seats within their caucus heading into the new Congress in 2025.

8 – There will be one short government shutdown in either January or February (when the two short-term continuing resolutions expire), but it will only last a few days. TheRepublicans will likely be blamed for the shutdown, and they will want to minimize the negative press in an election year and will quickly compromise; by forcing a shutdown they are just trying to make a point of showing how fiscally responsible they are so that they can use the issue to campaign on. Mike Johnson will survive as Speaker through the election, although his popularity will continue to decline within the Republican Caucus. (New leadership elections won’t take place until early 2025 so no predictions yet – but as an early hint to my 2025 predictions – there will be a lot of leadership changes in the next Congress.)

7 – There will be an agreement in early January which provides funding to Ukraine and Israel and will include a compromise on the border (but the legislation will not be as strong as the majority of Republicans would like to see). Since it is an election year, no other major legislation will be enacted into law. The focus, other than the election, will be on how to deal with, and regulate, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and how to reign in Cryptocurrencies in light of the recent collapses of a number of Crypto exchanges. The House will continue its investigation of President Biden, which is now an official Impeachment inquiry, but it will not go to trial. The Republicans will realize by mid-year that the issue is hurting them in the polls and they will quietly put it aside to focus on the election.

6 – Turning overseas, Benjamin Netanyahu will lose his job as Prime Minister of Israel and be replaced by Benny Gantz. I am not sure if there will be any post-mortem on what happened on October 7th in 2024, but if there is, Netanyahu will shoulder most of the blame for the lack of preparedness for the attack. The Israeli ground offensive will end early in the year and troops will withdraw from Gaza before mid-year, as Israel will recognize that any continued occupation brings with it diminishing returns. Some international or UN peace keeping force will move in as a temporary solution (pressure from the U.S. will force Israel’s hand here) as the world tries to find a way to have the Palestine Authority take over (either in its current form or more likely in some kind of makeover so that it is not perceived as being corrupt). While tensions will remain high in the region, and flareups in the West Bank and in the North will continue, no further war will begin – none of the parties can really afford it. Iran-backed rebels will also pull back from their attacks on ships in the Red Sea as the U.S. will used continued military force to deter them.

5 – 2024 will indeed by the year that Putin loses power in Russia (and possibly his life). The change in leadership will finally lead to a cease fire and negotiations that will end the war, as the Russian people have lost patience for the war and the new leadership will realize that they simply can’t win in any case. Russia will withdraw its troops from Ukraine but remain in Crimea – so by the end of 2024 we will basically be back to where we were before this senseless and costly war.

4 – North Korea will continue to be provocative , but other than saber-rattling, will pose no real threat to the rest of the world. China will once again be consumed by domestic economic issues, so there will be no invasion of Taiwan. In fact, the fall of Putin will actually help bring the U.S. and China a little closer and may even bring the return of the Pandas! Trudeau will continue to lose support in Canada; while I don’t see an early election, it will become clear that his future as leader is in doubt. Ditto for Macron in France, whose popularity will also continue to fall. There will be a general election called in the UK (the PM could wait until mid-December to call an election, which would mean that the election would take place in early 2025, but I don’t think he will wait that long) and Labor will regain power.

3 – While it will be close, and the data is mixed and hard to read, I think that the U.S. will avoid going into recession in 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates again, and in fact there will be three interest rate cuts during the year. The stock market will end the year up less than 5%, with good economic news at home being counterbalanced by global geopolitical uncertainty. AI stocks will continue to outperform, but will not perform nearly as well as they did in 2023. There will be continuing trouble in the commercial real estate market, but the residential real estate markets will pick-up as interest rates go down.

2 – Miscellaneous people thoughts: Elon Musk will continue to do what he does – be provocative and controversial. X will continue to lose advertisers and subscribers, and its very existence will be called into question by year-end. By then, I’m not sure anyone, including Musk, will really care. Trump’s Truth Social will file for bankrupcy. And speaking of Trump, he will be convicted at least once as he campaigns throughout the year. Tucker Carlson will not be Trump’s running mate; in fact, he will end up picking someone pretty mainstream (Sarah Huckabee Sanders, perhaps?) not someone from the MTG/Gaetz side. Jim Harbaugh will leave Michigan for the NFL. And the romance between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will end (sorry).

1 – Finally, my achilles heel in recent years, sports. This is what I wrote in my first draft of this blog on 12/2 before the season’s final games: “I just can’t see Georgia going undefeated for three straight years. And I know if I pick my Wolverines I will jinx them, so I am going to go ahead and predict that the Washington Huskies will win the national championship and keep my fingers crossed that I am wrong.” Now that the games are over and the four teams have been selected, I am going to switch to the Alabama Crimson Tide winning it all. The San Francisco 49ers will win the Super Bowl (I am sticking with this pick even though they lost badly to the Ravens on Christmas Eve; even if this becomes the Super Bowl match-up, it’s hard to beat the same team twice).  Purdue will win the NCAA basketball tournament. The Milwaukee Bucks will reclaim the title of NBA champs, and the New York Rangers will win the Stanley Cup. Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the World Series. ( I actually drafted this last prediction before they signed Ohtani.)

Time to review how I did with my 2023 predictions (comments in bold). Given where we are, 2024 predictions are going to be pretty hard!

I thought that 2022 would be a more normal year – but it hasn’t been. From Russia invading Ukraine, to China once again locking down as the rest of the world reopened, to the overturn of Roe V. Wade, to the unexpected midterm election results, to ….

Black swan events are becoming more common. So, this year, rather than hope for more normal times, I’m going to go with the assumption that the world’s craziness will continue – and make some seemingly outlandish predictions; who knows, some of them might even come true!

Here we go (and as always – this is what I predict will happen – not necessarily what I want to happen):

10 – Donald Trump will not be a candidate for President by the end of 2023. I don’t think he really wants to run – witness his lackluster announcement – and many Republicans seem ready to move on, at least for now, as DeSantis gains momentum. He will also be indicted at least once if not twice in 2023; he thought that running again would shield him from prosecution, but I don’t think that that will be the case. Some undisclosed illness will probably be the reason for dropping out so that he can save face. Once Trump drops out, headlines will be dominated by questions about Biden’s future (I am assuming he announces early in the year that he is running), and whether he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, or decide to withdraw himself since the Trump threat will be gone. What has resulted from what I got right here and what I got wrong is a great example of where our politics stands today. Trump was not indicted once or twice – he was indicted four times. But rather than force him out of the race, it has helped him increase his lead, at least with his MAGA Republican base, and fundraise. Biden did indeed announce his bid for reelection and he shows no signs of changing his mind in the face of increasing concern – even among Democrats – about his age. No serious challenges have emerged.

9 – Kevin McCathy will become Speaker of the House, but will be ousted by the end of the year. I’ve been going back and forth on this one, but I think he ultimately gets it simply because nobody else really wants it, and he seems willing to give up almost anything to get it; in fact, he will have to give up so much to get to 218 that he will effectively be a leader with no power from the start. Got this one exactly right – although I didn’t think he would last as long as he did. He had to give up so much to even get the job – which lead to concessions that doomed him from the start. And while the Democrats could have saved him, they didn’t trust him to keep his word.

8 – There will be no major legislation passed in 2023 (other than related to regulation of Cryptocurrencies), as the Republican-lead House will focus on Hunter Biden and impeaching Mayorkas and perhaps others. It will be the revenge tour for the January 6th Committee and the Trump impeachments. Grid lock and anger in Washington for sure. Pretty accurate here. There really was no major legislation that became law – the House passed a lot of bills that were never voted on or approved by the Senate. Definitely gridlock and anger (both between the parties and within the parties). Lots of focus on Hunter, still talk about impeaching Mayorkas and of course the Republican inquiry into impeaching Biden.

7 – Elon Musk will no longer be involved with Twitter on a day-to-day basis by the end of the year. This has been in the news of course this past week as I make these predictions, as he lost his own on-line poll about remaining as CEO. He already seems to be vacillating on his promise to name a new CEO – every day brings a change. I believe that this back and forth will continue for a while, so I decided to leave it in my predictions. He still may own the company (I wouldn’t be surprised either if he sells or it goes bankrupt), and even if he steps away he will never truly give up all control, but I think he will come under increasing scrutiny and pressure from the shareholders of Tesla and he will be forced to name new a CEO eventually, even this person is just ultimately a puppet. This is a tough one because while he did name a CEO, he is still by all accounts running the show, and running what is now called X into the ground. The new CEO is indeed a puppet and has had some pretty disasterous interviews which kind of confirm that she isn’t running the show. He has done more damage to this brand in a short period of time than I think anyone could have seen coming. Major advertisers are abandoning him left and right. And he probably doesn’t really care – more like a hobby for him. 

6- Putin will no longer be in power and the war between Russia and Ukraine will end. Again, I’m not exactly sure how this happens, but I think his position has become increasingly untenable. Perhaps an assassination, or perhaps a military coup, or even the likely-Trump route – a medical excuse to save face. Well, there was an attempted coup by the Wagner group. But Putin is still in power and the war continues. One could argue that his position is untenable, but he continues to survive, and the breakout of war in Israel has channeled much attention from Ukraine, a boom for Putin.

5 – China and Iran will continue to make minor concessions to quell recent uprisings, but these changes will be mostly cosmetic to appease the protesters, and the grips on power by the authoritarian regimes will continue. The Chinese economy will struggle during the first half of the year, as Covid cases and deaths rise, resulting in some new supply chain issues throughout the world. These issues begin to work themselves out in the Fall. North Korea will continue to provoke, but no major breakouts in hostilities will occur. Since China will be consumed with events at home once again, tensions surrounding Taiwan should not escalate. This was pretty accurate. North Korea continues periodic missile tests, but nothing too major. The supply chain issues did work themselves out earlier than I thought that they would. China and Iran do continue to hold their grips on power, although Iran made a lot of noise when war broke out between Hamas and Israel.

4 – It will be a much quieter year for European politics, certainly as compared to 2022. There will be no major leadership changes as there were in 2021, although if there is one it will be in Spain. The Mideast overall will be quiet, but there will be increasing tensions within Israel (between the Jewish citizens and the Palestinians) as the new Netanyahu  government will continue to go further right; it has to in order to keep the far right parties in the coalition. I expect riots at some of the holy places in Jerusalem and in the West Bank, and increasing strains with the U.S. – with both the Biden Administration and Jewish groups as the building of settlements will accelerate, and some rights of the Palestinians and LGBTQI+ citizens are threatened. Riots? Maybe a little more than that, and while the West Bank (and Northern Israel) saw fighting, the real flair-up was in Gaza when Hamas attacked Israel in early October. Relations were kind of strained before the war as the Israeli government tried to reduce the power of the Supreme Court, but the U.S. has firmly support Israel in the war against Hamas – until the international pressure over the number of civilian casualties has begun to cause some strain. Another year in the Middle East and more violence. The brief cease fire is set to end as I write this at the end of November.

3 – The U.S. will go into a mild and shallow recession. But inflation will continue to ease, food prices will finally start to come down, and the recession will be very short. The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two more times (25 basis points) early in the year, and while there will be hope for an interest rate cut before year-end, this will not come to fruition, as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain determined to keep inflation under control. I was a little early on the recession call (stay tuned), but inflation has eased. The Fed raised interest rate three times, not two, but did pause at the end of the year and did not reduce rates during the year.

2 – While the stock market usually likes political gridlock, as government spending is kept in check, 2023 will be another volatile year for stocks, although not nearly as bad as 2022. Bonds, however, will start to perform better. All of the major stock indices will end the year essentially flat to slightly down. Cryptocurrencies will remain in the headlines, and as mentioned above, some regulation of the industry will be the only significant legislation passed during the year. The overall performance of Cryptos will be negative. Well, not so good here. A rally during the first half of the year, followed by a bad third quarter, and a rally near year-end, left indices higher overall than I thought that they would be. No legislation on Cryptos quite yet, although they were in the news, and many cryptos did rally during the year, led by Bitcoin.

1 – Finally, sports. I am going to go with my heart, hope for another Black Swan event and pick Michigan to beat Georgia to win the college football national championship. The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. Virginia will win the NCAA basketball tournament. The Boston Celtics will be NBA champs, and the Boston Bruins will win the Stanley Cup. Finally, the Houston Astros will win the World Series. I continue my pathetic sports picks for another year! At least the hometown Texas Rangers won the World Series (although I am not a huge baseball fan). I should stop making sports predictions – but I won’t!

I thought that 2022 would be a more normal year – but it hasn’t been. From Russia invading Ukraine, to China once again locking down as the rest of the world reopened, to the overturn of Roe V. Wade, to the unexpected midterm election results, to ….

Black swan events are becoming more common. So, this year, rather than hope for more normal times, I’m going to go with the assumption that the world’s craziness will continue – and make some seemingly outlandish predictions; who knows, some of them might even come true!

Here we go (and as always – this is what I predict will happen – not necessarily what I want to happen):

10 – Donald Trump will not be a candidate for President by the end of 2023. I don’t think he really wants to run – witness his lackluster announcement – and many Republicans seem ready to move on, at least for now, as DeSantis gains momentum. He will also be indicted at least once if not twice in 2023; he thought that running again would shield him from prosecution, but I don’t think that that will be the case. Some undisclosed illness will probably be the reason for dropping out so that he can save face. Once Trump drops out, headlines will be dominated by questions about Biden’s future (I am assuming he announces early in the year that he is running), and whether he will be challenged in the Democratic primaries, or decide to withdraw himself since the Trump threat will be gone.

9 – Kevin McCathy will become Speaker of the House, but will be ousted by the end of the year. I’ve been going back and forth on this one, but I think he ultimately gets it simply because nobody else really wants it, and he seems willing to give up almost anything to get it; in fact, he will have to give up so much to get to 218 that he will effectively be a leader with no power from the start.

8 – There will be no major legislation passed in 2023 (other than related to regulation of Cryptocurrencies), as the Republican-lead House will focus on Hunter Biden and impeaching Mayorkas and perhaps others. It will be the revenge tour for the January 6th Committee and the Trump impeachments. Grid lock and anger in Washington for sure.

7 – Elon Musk will no longer be involved with Twitter on a day-to-day basis by the end of the year. This has been in the news of course this past week as I make these predictions, as he lost his own on-line poll about remaining as CEO. He already seems to be vacillating on his promise to name a new CEO – every day brings a change. I believe that this back and forth will continue for a while, so I decided to leave it in my predictions. He still may own the company (I wouldn’t be surprised either if he sells or it goes bankrupt), and even if he steps away he will never truly give up all control, but I think he will come under increasing scrutiny and pressure from the shareholders of Tesla and he will be forced to name new a CEO eventually, even this person is just ultimately a puppet.

6- Putin will no longer be in power and the war between Russia and Ukraine will end. Again, I’m not exactly sure how this happens, but I think his position has become increasingly untenable. Perhaps an assassination, or perhaps a military coup, or even the likely-Trump route – a medical excuse to save face.

5 – China and Iran will continue to make minor concessions to quell recent uprisings, but these changes will be mostly cosmetic to appease the protesters, and the grips on power by the authoritarian regimes will continue. The Chinese economy will struggle during the first half of the year, as Covid cases and deaths rise, resulting in some new supply chain issues throughout the world. These issues begin to work themselves out in the Fall. North Korea will continue to provoke, but no major breakouts in hostilities will occur. Since China will be consumed with events at home once again, tensions surrounding Taiwan should not escalate.

4 – It will be a much quieter year for European politics, certainly as compared to 2022. There will be no major leadership changes as there were in 2021, although if there is one it will be in Spain. The Mideast overall will be quiet, but there will be increasing tensions within Israel (between the Jewish citizens and the Palestinians) as the new Netanyahu  government will continue to go further right; it has to in order to keep the far right parties in the coalition. I expect riots at some of the holy places in Jerusalem and in the West Bank, and increasing strains with the U.S. – with both the Biden Administration and Jewish groups as the building of settlements will accelerate, and some rights of the Palestinians and LGBTQI+ citizens are threatened.

3 – The U.S. will go into a mild and shallow recession. But inflation will continue to ease, food prices will finally start to come down, and the recession will be very short. The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two more times (25 basis points) early in the year, and while there will be hope for an interest rate cut before year-end, this will not come to fruition, as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain determined to keep inflation under control.

2 – While the stock market usually likes political gridlock, as government spending is kept in check, 2023 will be another volatile year for stocks, although not nearly as bad as 2022. Bonds, however, will start to perform better. All of the major stock indices will end the year essentially flat to slightly down. Cryptocurrencies will remain in the headlines, and as mentioned above, some regulation of the industry will be the only significant legislation passed during the year. The overall performance of Cryptos will be negative.

1 – Finally, sports. I am going to go with my heart, hope for another Black Swan event and pick Michigan to beat Georgia to win the college football national championship. The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl. Virginia will win the NCAA basketball tournament. The Boston Celtics will be NBA champs, and the Boston Bruins will win the Stanley Cup. Finally, the Houston Astros will win the World Series.

Time to review how I did with my 2022 predictions (comments in bold). It turned out to be another crazy year in so many ways!

While we were all hoping for a more normal 2021, unfortunately that did not happen. The drama started early in the year – January 6th to be exact – and continued with Omicron and dysfunction on full display in Washington as the year ended.

I am trying to be as optimistic as I can as I look forward to 2022, but I honestly see another year of turmoil ahead. Hopefully, amidst whatever transpires, we can each find some peace and tranquility within ourselves and with loved ones.

Here we go (and as always – this is what I think will happen – not necessarily what I want to happen):

11 – I am adding an 11th prediction because I don’t know if this will happen in 2022 or not – but I wanted to be on the record with my prediction in case it does. Donald Trump will NOT run for re-election. While he will probably extend the drama for as long as he can to maintain his grip over the party, he could surprise us all and announce something before the end of 2022 (he has already said that he will wait until after the midterm elections). This will likely become a 2023 prediction. As always, Mr. Trump was full of surprises. I was wrong (for now ….. wait until my new predictions), and he likely moved up his announcement thinking it would make it more difficult to indict him. That remains to be seen. But the kick-off to the campaign was met with resistance from many Republicans, he lost some credibility when Walker lost the Georgia race, and his legal woes compounded during December.

10 – Speaking of the midterm elections … The Republicans will retake both the House and the Senate. It will be close in the Senate, because it is a very difficult path for the Republicans, but they will emerge with 52 seats. The House will not even be close, and the Democrats will lose more seats than they ever have in a midterm election. The Democrats did surprisingly keep control of the Senate, and actually added a seat, helped by the poor quality of many of the Republican candidates. And the red wave in the House did not materialize after all. It seems that the overturning of Roe v. Wade motivated more Democrats and woman to vote. It was the Republicans to lose, and even though they won a slim majority, getting anything meaningful done will be very difficult.

9 – The primary season leading up to the midterms will be the ugliest yet – within both parties, the extreme factions of each party will pull farther apart. On the Republican side it will be the MAGA wing v. the so-called RINO wing, and on the Democratic side it will be moderates v. liberals. Trump-supported candidates will not do as well as expected and neither Herschel Walker or Dr. Oz will win Senate seats (although Walker might become the party’s candidate). Neither Walker or Oz did win, Trump candidates did poorly overall and there were some contentious primaries. Both parties seem as fractured as ever. On the Republican side, McCarthy is struggling in his attempt to become Speaker of the House, and on the Democratic side, while new, younger leadership has been elected, the progressives remain unhappy with the general direction of the party.

8 – The January 6th commission will continue to be stymied by witnesses who refuse to testify (and delay), but they will release a report before the election, sensing that a Republican majority will disband the committee. There will be some damning evidence presented against former President Trump and some of his allies, but overall reaction will be muted (given the partisan divide); two members of the House will resign because of their roles in the planning. No prosecutions will take place in 2022. A mixed bag here. There were no prosecutions (yet) and no House resignations. The committee was largely ignored by Republicans, and there were some refusals to testify, although some Trump administration officials did testify and provide damning evidence against the former President. I should have said that the committee would rush to get the report out before year-end – not the election – which they have announced that they will. And it now seems that the committee will recommend to the DOJ that some people get indicted (not clear who yet at the time I posted this), but these recommendations are not binding.

7 – Former President Trump will be indicted in NY State for business-related irregularities at the Trump Organization, and perhaps for tax evasion . And speaking of Trump, little or no progress will be made in launching his new media platform (True Social). While Trump himself has not been indicted yet, the business was found guilty of tax fraud. One can argue either way about True Social, but I would argue that it has not become nearly as popular as Trump would have hoped.

6 – The pandemic will become an endemic – it is something that we are just going to have to live with. Annual boosters will become necessary, and by the end of the year one will be developed that will also include the flu so that only one shot per year will be necessary. This should be developed by the fall. Other named mutations will occur, since much of the world remains unvaccinated, but the US will not shut down. (Even if the government tried, many people would not heed it, and I think the government knows that.) Continued lockdowns in some parts of the world, including Europe may continue, but so will protests and eventually the realization that we must live with it will proliferate and the number of  lockdowns will decline. Mostly right here. Annual boosters against new variants seem probable moving forward, but the flu shot remains separate for now. Lockdowns continued in China but were met with unprecedented protests, leading the government to “give in” in December and re-open the economy. We are going to have to live with Covid; disappointing however has been the low percentage of Americans that are getting boosters. 

5 – On the international front, the US will continue to be pressured to impose sanctions on Russia over Ukraine, but will continue to resist and no invasion will take place. Relations with China will remain tense but I don’t see a serious deterioration or any major blow-ups over Taiwan. China will be focused at home and continue to crack down internally as Xi continues to amass more power. The Olympics will be postponed because many athletes will not be able to get there. Talks with Iran on a nuclear deal will continue, but no new deal will be reached. The coalition government in Israel will fall, and Netanyahu will become Prime Minister again. Macron will lose the French election in a shocker, and Boris Johnson will survive a no confidence vote. Another mixed bag. Most of us were wrong about Ukraine, Macron did get re-elected, but in a much closer election than anticipated, and well Boris did not survive. But China is having its own internal problems, so while relations with the US aren’t good, they haven’t changed significantly. I was right about Netanyahu and no Iran deal.

4 – Inflation will remain high throughout the year, another factor that will hurt the democrats in the midterm elections. The Fed will raise interest rates two times during the year, not three as previously announced, as global economic growth will be slower than expected. The supply chain issues will continue to work themselves out and thing should be back to normal on this front by late summer. But with continued worries over Covid, the labor markets will continue to be unstable, with employers (retail, restaurants) continuing to have problems hiring. Mostly right other than the number and magnitude of the interest rate increases. Inflation remains a problem as does hiring, but the supply chain issues have improved dramatically. However, more economists are predicting a recession in 2023 (which rattled the markets in early December before better than expected inflation numbers mid-month led to a rally).

3 – The economy will chug along at a moderate pace, hampered by the labor issues mentioned above. Consumer confidence will be hampered throughout the year by higher prices, but gas prices should come down by mid-year. The hybrid work model will continue to become permanent, and many companies will adopt a flexible model of allowing employees to work from home at least a few days a week. A much smaller Build Back Better Bill will pass, but the bitterness caused by the delay, coupled with the impending elections, will make this the only major piece of legislation passed in 2021. The economy did, and continues to chug along, a smaller version of the Build Back Better Bill did pass, although was given an awful name that will haunt Democrats in 2024! While some companies did adopt more flexible models for employees, I was surprised by the number of companies – including many financial institutions and technology companies – that have now ended any remote work options. 

2 – The word of the year in the stock market will be volatility in light of the ongoing uncertainty caused by Covid variants. But company fundamentals remain strong, as companies have been able to pass costs on to consumers. There will be a 10% correction during the year, perhaps in response to Fed tightening , but this is a normal part of any stock market cycle, and the markets will end up modestly for the year – but less than 5%. Cryptocurrencies will continue to gain in popularity, and they will continue to be extremely volatile, but will end the year higher overall. I was a little too confident here! There was a correction, but much larger than I thought, making 2022 a losing year, and well we all know what happened to Cryptos. But … I was right on the volatility part!

1 – Finally, my Achilles Heal the past few years, sports. Georgia will win the college football national championship, capping off an undefeated year and sadly beating my Wolverines. Predicting who will win the Super Bowl is a tough one, because as of now I see a lot of mediocre teams. But since I have to make a prediction, I am going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs. Baylor will win the NCAA basketball tournament. The Phoenix Suns will be NBA champs, and the Minnesota Wild will win the Stanley Cup. Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers will reclaim their place as baseball champions. Well – I did get Georgia right! Not much else. Sigh.

While we were all hoping for a more normal 2021, unfortunately that did not happen. The drama started early in the year – January 6th to be exact – and continued with Omicron and dysfunction on full display in Washington as the year ended.

I am trying to be as optimistic as I can as I look forward to 2022, but I honestly see another year of turmoil ahead. Hopefully, amidst whatever transpires, we can each find some peace and tranquility within ourselves and with loved ones.

Here we go (and as always – this is what I think will happen – not necessarily what I want to happen):

11 – I am adding an 11th prediction because I don’t know if this will happen in 2022 or not – but I wanted to be on the record with my prediction in case it does. Donald Trump will NOT run for re-election. While he will probably extend the drama for as long as he can to maintain his grip over the party, he could surprise us all and announce something before the end of 2022 (he has already said that he will wait until after the midterm elections). This will likely become a 2023 prediction.

10 – Speaking of the midterm elections … The Republicans will retake both the House and the Senate. It will be close in the Senate, because it is a very difficult path for the Republicans, but they will emerge with 52 seats. The House will not even be close, and the Democrats will lose more seats than they ever have in a midterm election.

9 – The primary season leading up to the midterms will be the ugliest yet – within both parties, the extreme factions of each party will pull farther apart. On the Republican side it will be the MAGA wing v. the so-called RINO wing, and on the Democratic side it will be moderates v. liberals. Trump-supported candidates will not do as well as expected and neither Herschel Walker or Dr. Oz will win Senate seats (although Walker might become the party’s candidate).

8 – The January 6th commission will continue to be stymied by witnesses who refuse to testify (and delay), but they will release a report before the election, sensing that a Republican majority will disband the committee. There will be some damning evidence presented against former President Trump and some of his allies, but overall reaction will be muted (given the partisan divide); two members of the House will resign because of their roles in the planning. No prosecutions will take place in 2022.

7 – Former President Trump will be indicted in NY State for business-related irregularities at the Trump Organization, and perhaps for tax evasion . And speaking of Trump, little or no progress will be made in launching his new media platform (True Social).

6 – The pandemic will become an endemic – it is something that we are just going to have to live with. Annual boosters will become necessary, and by the end of the year one will be developed that will also include the flu so that only one shot per year will be necessary. This should be developed by the fall. Other named mutations will occur, since much of the world remains unvaccinated, but the US will not shut down. (Even if the government tried, many people would not heed it, and I think the government knows that.) Continued lockdowns in some parts of the world, including Europe may continue, but so will protests and eventually the realization that we must live with it will proliferate and the number of  lockdowns will decline.

5 – On the international front, the US will continue to be pressured to impose sanctions on Russia over Ukraine, but will continue to resist and no invasion will take place. Relations with China will remain tense but I don’t see a serious deterioration or any major blow-ups over Taiwan. China will be focused at home and continue to crack down internally as Xi continues to amass more power. The Olympics will be postponed because many athletes will not be able to get there. Talks with Iran on a nuclear deal will continue, but no new deal will be reached. The coalition government in Israel will fall, and Netanyahu will become Prime Minister again. Macron will lose the French election in a shocker, and Boris Johnson will survive a no confidence vote.

4 – Inflation will remain high throughout the year, another factor that will hurt the democrats in the midterm elections. The Fed will raise interest rates two times during the year, not three as previously announced, as global economic growth will be slower than expected. The supply chain issues will continue to work themselves out and thing should be back to normal on this front by late summer. But with continued worries over Covid, the labor markets will continue to be unstable, with employers (retail, restaurants) continuing to have problems hiring.

3 – The economy will chug along at a moderate pace, hampered by the labor issues mentioned above. Consumer confidence will be hampered throughout the year by higher prices, but gas prices should come down by mid-year. The hybrid work model will continue to become permanent, and many companies will adopt a flexible model of allowing employees to work from home at least a few days a week. A much smaller Build Back Better Bill will pass, but the bitterness caused by the delay, coupled with the impending elections, will make this the only major piece of legislation passed in 2021.

2 – The word of the year in the stock market will be volatility in light of the ongoing uncertainty caused by Covid variants. But company fundamentals remain strong, as companies have been able to pass costs on to consumers. There will be a 10% correction during the year, perhaps in response to Fed tightening , but this is a normal part of any stock market cycle, and the markets will end up modestly for the year – but less than 5%. Cryptocurrencies will continue to gain in popularity, and they will continue to be extremely volatile, but will end the year higher overall.

1 – Finally, my Achilles Heal the past few years, sports. Georgia will win the college football national championship, capping off an undefeated year and sadly beating my Wolverines. Predicting who will win the Super Bowl is a tough one, because as of now I see a lot of mediocre teams. But since I have to make a prediction, I am going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs. Baylor will win the NCAA basketball tournament. The Phoenix Suns will be NBA champs, and the Minnesota Wild will win the Stanley Cup. Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers will reclaim their place as baseball champions.

Before I bravely (or stupidly) try to predict what will happen in 2022, let’s take a look at how I have done so far this year. New comments are bolded. Pretty happy with how I did – especially given the fact that I never imagined that January 6th and the Delta variant would control so much of the 2021 narrative. But that’s what makes this fun!

I should have my head examined for even making predictions for 2021. I should probably just say that there will be a lot of uncertainty and leave it at that.

But that wouldn’t be fun – would it? So here I go again. As always, please keep in mind this is what I think will happen – not necessarily would I would like to see happen.

10 – President Trump will leave office and the White House on January 20th (he might in fact vacate the WH before that date) and Joe Biden will become our 46th President. Trump will not concede and he will not attend the inauguration. He will quickly associate himself with a right-leaning media organization (Newsmax, One America Network or Rush Limbaugh as examples) to either produce his own show or be a frequent guest. He will also explore starting his own media empire. His talk of running again in 2024 will fade as the year progresses but his influence within the GOP will persist. This was pretty accurate. He did not associate himself with any news organizations (but was a pretty frequent guest on Fox), but late in the year he did announce the creation of his own media platform called Truth Social. His influence has definitely not waned, and he is still talking about 2024, although he recently said that he would not make an announcement until after the midterm elections. 

9 – President Trump will pardon his children and many of his close associates (Rudy) before he leaves office (some of these might take place in 2020 after this is posted), but he will not attempt to pardon himself. While the Democrats in Congress will not begin a large number of investigations into Trump and his allies in an attempt to cool the partisan atmosphere in Washington, expect NY State to quickly and vigorously investigate The Trump Organization and the President’s other business dealings. Partially right on here. I think if not for January 6th, he would have gone ahead and pardoned his children. Who could have predicted what happened on that day? Partisanship has definitely not cooled! And the fight over his taxes with NY State continues.

8- I went back and forth on this one, but made a last minute decision to predict that the Democrats will win the two Georgia Senate seats and essentially take control of the Senate with Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote. Why did I change my mind? Because I just read that more people have already voted by mail (December 21st) than did in total in the November general election. Such high turn out favors the Democrats as does President Trump’s continued criticism of Georgia election officials, which could lead to low turnout on the Republican side. Ironically, Susan Collins (who almost lost her re-election bid) and other moderate Senators like Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski will yield more day-to-day power than Majority Leader McConnell, as their willingness to work across the aisle will give them powerful leverage in determining the success/failure of Biden’s agenda in such an evenly split Senate. I was right on the Senate races and while the Republican Senators did help negotiate and pass the bi-partisan infrastructure bill I did miss how the most powerful Senators would be two Democrats – Manchin and Sinema – and they would make life hard for their own leaders more than the opposition!

7 – The Senate will block at least two of Biden’s nominees, but the Secretary of Defense will be confirmed with a waiver. There will be another major stimulus bill passed within the first 60 days of the new administration and a major infrastructure bill will pass in the first half of the year. Given the small House majority, however, there will not be a major tax bill passed; any changes will be smaller and more targeted. Efforts will also be made early in the year in reestablishing our international standing and willingness to reengage with the rest of the world, especially with fears of a Taliban resurgence in the face of recent U.S. troop withdrawals from the region. Pretty good here. Austin was confirmed, nobody was blocked but at least one nominee took her name out of contention faced with opposition. Stimulus was passed, as was infrastructure eventually (but not in the first half of the year). Biden did make early gains on the international front, but the sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal made some allies question us. Taliban fears panned out quicker than anyone imagined.

6 – There will be one or two additional new Covid-19 vaccines approved in the first quarter, and everyone who wants to be vaccinated in the U.S. will be able to be by the end of June. The Biden Administration will increase overall confidence in the vaccine and herd immunity will be reached in time for the start of school in the Fall. (Trying to be optimistic and realistic here.) Life will not get back to near normalcy, however, until at least January 2022. Conditional approval was actually given to three vaccines and everyone was able to get a vaccine. What I did not anticipate was the hesitancy among so many and that the issue would become so politicized (but I should have in today’s world!). Herd immunity was not reached but most schools were able to reopen. And life is certainly not yet fully back to normal, although things are looking up, at least in the U.S. Of course until Omicron appeared and chaos reigned once again as the year ended.

5 – Executive orders will make rejoining the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization early highlights of the Biden Administration, but entering into a new deal with Iran will prove to be more tricky. I don’t envision any new deal (or modification of the existing one) during 2021. There will be little progress with North Korea, and the two leaders will not meet.The U.S. will sign a trade deal with the UK. Was correct about everything but the U.S. and the UK signing a trade deal in 2021. Nuclear talks did start again near year-end, but no visible progress has been made yet.

4 – Biden’s efforts to re-engage with our allies should help lesson NATO clashes. Tensions with Russia will rise, especially in light of the recent evidence  of ongoing hacking, and I expect some significant new sanctions will be put into place. Relations with China will be tense as well, fueled by the Trump administration’s late 2020 exit from the Open Skies Treaty, but I expect less trade war rhetoric and fewer sanctions. There will be continued progress with Israel and other Middle Eastern government normalizing relations, but I expect fewer U.S. concessions to make this happen. Relations with Israel will remain good, but I don’t expect Biden and Netanyahu to have a close relationship. The leadership succession plan in Germany will finally become clearer. Boris Johnson’s popularity will continue to decline, especially after his botched handling of Christmas, but he will survive the year as leader; he will not, however, learn how to use a comb. Mixed bag here. Relations with Russia and China remain cool, but not much progress has been made in the Middle East and of course Netanyahu is no longer in office (at least for now).  The succession to Merkel has been messy, and taken longer than anticipated, though it did happen in early December and while Boris Johnson’s popularity did increase during the Fall, it began to wane again near year-end when stories emerged that there were Christmas parties in 2020 at Downing Street in violation of Covid rules. 

3 – The economy will go into another mini-recession early in the year because of the delay in passing a stimulus bill until late Q42020 and the lingering effects of this new strain of Covid-19. As more people get vaccinated, however, and the spread of the virus slows post-holidays, the economy will pick-up quickly IF there is another stimulus bill and a comprehensive infrastructure bill. If either of these efforts stalls, the recession will be longer and deeper. In any case, economic growth should pick-up in the last quarter of the year as the travel and entertainment sectors begin to recover. The outlook for these industries remains bleak, however, as it will be years before things are back to near normal. Wrong on the recession and the economy has done well even with the delay in passing the infrastructure bill. Travel and entertainment have picked-up as the economy has opened, but I completely missed three other black swans – longer-lasting inflation, labor shortages and growing issues with global supply chains. That is what makes this fun – what will next year’s surprises be?

2 – The stock market will continue on its upward trajectory, but as always it is a market of stocks – and industry performance will vary significantly. The stay at home trend is here to stay even when herd immunity is reached. More people will be working remotely, and people have gotten used to the new normal. I don’t expect to see people running back to gyms and entertainment venues when they have invested in equipment at home. As a whole the market will be up 3% – 5% for the year, with technology stocks continuing to perform well even with a somewhat struggling economy. Bitcoin and others cryptocurrencies will continue to become more mainstream in what is quickly becoming a cashless society amidst concerns over touching objects in public. Cash has not become as obsolete as I thought that it would, while cryptos did continue an impressive run before pulling back in December. People have rushed back to gyms and entertainment venues in part because the Delta variant made the pandemic last longer and people were so desperate to get out! Offices have delayed reopening in many cases and many companies will remain remote or be hybrid. The market’s remarkable comeback continued until Omicron brought back late-year volatility. As I right this, optimism is picking up again as it appears that current vaccines (with a booster) are still effective against the latest variant.

1 – Finally, sports – which has been my achilles heel for the past few years. Ohio State will win the college football national championship with an asterisk, since they only played six games. This was my second last minute change. I originally had Ohio State, then switched to Clemson because I didn’t think the Buckeyes looked so good against Northwestern. BUT I just read that Saban and Swinney both ranked OSU out of their final Top Four. This will serve as a great motivator for Ohio State and they should have most if not all of the 20+ players that were out of the last game back. Revenge is a great motivator (in my humble option it is ND that should have been left out of the top four). The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl. Gonzaga will win the college basketball national championship. The following teams will repeat as champions – the Los Angeles Dodgers in baseball, the Tampa Bay Lightening in Hockey and the Los Angeles Lakers in basketball. Once again – I was pretty bad here once again! Clemson won the college football title – OSU didn’t even make it to the final. The goat proved me wrong again, but you have to admire his greatness. Baylor beat Gonzaga – I was so close. And of course those predicted repeats did not happen.

I should have my head examined for even making predictions for 2021. I should probably just say that there will be a lot of uncertainty and leave it at that.

But that wouldn’t be fun – would it? So here I go again. As always, please keep in mind this is what I think will happen – not necessarily would I would like to see happen.

10 – President Trump will leave office and the White House on January 20th (he might in fact vacate the WH before that date) and Joe Biden will become our 46th President. Trump will not concede and he will not attend the inauguration. He will quickly associate himself with a right-leaning media organization (Newsmax, One America Network or Rush Limbaugh as examples) to either produce his own show or be a frequent guest. He will also explore starting his own media empire. His talk of running again in 2024 will fade as the year progresses but his influence within the GOP will persist.

9 – President Trump will pardon his children and many of his close associates (Rudy) before he leaves office (some of these might take place in 2020 after this is posted), but he will not attempt to pardon himself. While the Democrats in Congress will not begin a large number of investigations into Trump and his allies in an attempt to cool the partisan atmosphere in Washington, expect NY State to quickly and vigorously investigate The Trump Organization and the President’s other business dealings.

8- I went back and forth on this one, but made a last minute decision to predict that the Democrats will win the two Georgia Senate seats and essentially take control of the Senate with Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote. Why did I change my mind? Because I just read that more people have already voted by mail (December 21st) than did in total in the November general election. Such high turn out favors the Democrats as does President Trump’s continued criticism of Georgia election officials, which could lead to low turnout on the Republican side. Ironically, Susan Collins (who almost lost her re-election bid) and other moderate Senators like Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski will yield more day-to-day power than Majority Leader McConnell, as their willingness to work across the aisle will give them powerful leverage in determining the success/failure of Biden’s agenda in such an evenly split Senate.

7 – The Senate will block at least two of Biden’s nominees, but the Secretary of Defense will be confirmed with a waiver. There will be another major stimulus bill passed within the first 60 days of the new administration and a major infrastructure bill will pass in the first half of the year. Given the small House majority, however, there will not be a major tax bill passed; any changes will be smaller and more targeted. Efforts will also be made early in the year in reestablishing our international standing and willingness to reengage with the rest of the world, especially with fears of a Taliban resurgence in the face of recent U.S. troop withdrawals from the region.

6 – There will be one or two additional new Covid-19 vaccines approved in the first quarter, and everyone who wants to be vaccinated in the U.S. will be able to be by the end of June. The Biden Administration will increase overall confidence in the vaccine and herd immunity will be reached in time for the start of school in the Fall. (Trying to be optimistic and realistic here.) Life will not get back to near normalcy, however, until at least January 2022.

5 – Executive orders will make rejoining the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization early highlights of the Biden Administration, but entering into a new deal with Iran will prove to be more tricky. I don’t envision any new deal (or modification of the existing one) during 2021. There will be little progress with North Korea, and the two leaders will not meet.The U.S. will sign a trade deal with the UK.

4 – Biden’s efforts to re-engage with our allies should help lesson NATO clashes. Tensions with Russia will rise, especially in light of the recent evidence  of ongoing hacking, and I expect some significant new sanctions will be put into place. Relations with China will be tense as well, fueled by the Trump administration’s late 2020 exit from the Open Skies Treaty, but I expect less trade war rhetoric and fewer sanctions. There will be continued progress with Israel and other Middle Eastern government normalizing relations, but I expect fewer U.S. concessions to make this happen. Relations with Israel will remain good, but I don’t expect Biden and Netanyahu to have a close relationship. The leadership succession plan in Germany will finally become clearer. Boris Johnson’s popularity will continue to decline, especially after his botched handling of Christmas, but he will survive the year as leader; he will not, however, learn how to use a comb.

3 – The economy will go into another mini-recession early in the year because of the delay in passing a stimulus bill until late Q42020 and the lingering effects of this new strain of Covid-19. As more people get vaccinated, however, and the spread of the virus slows post-holidays, the economy will pick-up quickly IF there is another stimulus bill and a comprehensive infrastructure bill. If either of these efforts stalls, the recession will be longer and deeper. In any case, economic growth should pick-up in the last quarter of the year as the travel and entertainment sectors begin to recover. The outlook for these industries remains bleak, however, as it will be years before things are back to near normal.

2 – The stock market will continue on its upward trajectory, but as always it is a market of stocks – and industry performance will vary significantly. The stay at home trend is here to stay even when herd immunity is reached. More people will be working remotely, and people have gotten used to the new normal. I don’t expect to see people running back to gyms and entertainment venues when they have invested in equipment at home. As a whole the market will be up 3% – 5% for the year, with technology stocks continuing to perform well even with a somewhat struggling economy. Bitcoin and others cryptocurrencies will continue to become more mainstream in what is quickly becoming a cashless society amidst concerns over touching objects in public.

1 – Finally, sports – which has been my achilles heel for the past few years. Ohio State will win the college football national championship with an asterisk, since they only played six games. This was my second last minute change. I originally had Ohio State, then switched to Clemson because I didn’t think the Buckeyes looked so good against Northwestern. BUT I just read that Saban and Swinney both ranked OSU out of their final Top Four. This will serve as a great motivator for Ohio State and they should have most if not all of the 20+ players that were out of the last game back. Revenge is a great motivator (in my humble option it is ND that should have been left out of the top four). The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl. Gonzaga will win the college basketball national championship. The following teams will repeat as champions – the Los Angeles Dodgers in baseball, the Tampa Bay Lightening in Hockey and the Los Angeles Lakers in basketball.

I think it is safe to say that most of you are probably as happy as I am that 2020 is coming to an end. Before I make my predictions for next year, I want to review my predictions for 2020 – both sets of them.

You might recall that given the pandemic, I updated the predictions at the end of June. I was not asking for a redo, and I stand by my initial predictions, but given the nature of the year I felt it appropriate to adapt to the unusual circumstances and update my predictions for the second half of the year.

My initial prediction is first. The updated prediction is in ( ) and my year-end comments are bolded.

10 – President Trump will be acquitted in the Senate and remain in office. No information has yet emerged that indicates that Republicans in Congress who have supported him so far will change their minds. While this is currently the expected result, what I am really predicting here is that no bombshells will appear that will result in the Republican-led Senate turning against Trump. There will also be talk among Democrats of a second impeachment soon after the election, and before the year ends. (Kind of hard to update this prediction other than to say that there has already been talk of a second impeachment and additional hearings into some of the conduct of the Administration, At this point, however, I think as a nation we are too tired and distracted to do much here. It will be all about fighting the pandemic, making progress on social justice reform and of course the election.) I turned out to be right here, but as we all know, progress on social justice reform has, and will continue to be, slow and we continue to fight the pandemic.

9 – Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee and pick Kamala Harris as his running partner. (I am sticking with this. If not Harris, however, my money would be on Val Demings.) Was right here as well. I should have stopped at two predictions!

8 – President Trump will be re-elected (with Mike Pence as his VP) after one of the ugliest campaigns in modern history, and the country will remain deeply divided. The Republicans will keep the Senate (barely) and the Democrats will keep the House but with a smaller majority. At least one if not two members of the “Squad” will lose in their re-election bids. (I now believe that the Democrats will sweep the election and win the presidency and both Houses of Congress. The left wing of the party will actually take more of the seats on the Democratic side and the “Squad” will stay intact. I believe that there is a 75% chance that Biden will win in a landslide. Trump will not fight leaving office, but will announce an unprecedented number of controversial pardons before he goes.) Mixed bag here. While the left  wing of the Democratic party did gain seats, the party underperformed overall in both the House and the Senate (we will have to wait until the beginning of January to see who will control the Senate). One could argue both ways on whether Biden won in a landslide. He had large margins in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, and his total in the College was the same that Trump declared to be a landslide 4 years ago. And the pardons have begun … and will continue.

7 – There will be some legislative progress early in the year, post-impeachment trial, as both parties will be hungry to show the country progress. The final revised U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and an infrastructure bill will be two of the successes. No meaningful legislation will pass after June with the exception of a trade deal with the U.K. (I’m not sure that the stimulus packages that have been passed would count here since no one could have anticipated them. The new trade deal was finalized earlier in the year. Trump recently mentioned an infrastructure bill but I don’t see anything other than perhaps one more stimulus bill being passed the rest of the year. We are already in campaign mode; Congress couldn’t even make significant progress on law enforcement reform in the face of the mass nation-wide demonstrations.) My updated prediction turned out to be correct. But I guess one could argue that given the political divide, this was a pretty easy call!

6 – Brexit will occur early in the year thanks to the surprisingly large Conservative victory in the general election held in December; Boris Johnson’s gamble worked. The U.S. and Britain will sign a comprehensive new trade agreement during the year, and Britain will negotiate a trade agreement with the EU so that it will not be a no-deal Brexit despite year-end concerns that a deal might not be struck. (The U.S. will not have a new trade agreement with Britain before the end of the year. I don’t think there will be a final agreement on Brexit before year-end either. There may be an extension however, given the pandemic, so the discussion of a deal v. no-deal Brexit might be pushed into 2021. Finally, Trump will increase European tariffs before the end of the year on some products, increasing tensions with these countries.) As we go to print, my updated predictions were pretty accurate, although it looks like there not be an extension and there will be a no-deal Brexit. But since this is being published before year-end, there is a slight chance that a deal will be reached since negotiations have gone into overtime.

5 – Elsewhere overseas, Merkel will call new elections and not be President of Germany at the end of the year. Netanyahu will not be Prime Minister of Israel at year-end either, and may in fact be standing trial by year-end. I also predict that Netanyahu will not even be the candidate for PM in the upcoming election, as the Likud Party will turn him out in the wake of his legal problems. Political turmoil in France will continue, further dimming Macron’s political future. There will be no progress toward Middle East peace once again, and the growing divide between Trump and Kim Jong-un will increase. (Merkel will in fact stay in power, as she has gained even more stature thanks to her response to the pandemic. Netanyahu will leave office at the end of next year as part of a power-sharing agreement made to be able to form a government, but his power will wane with Trump’s defeat and he will never be PM again (this is more of  a 2021 story). No progress will of course be made with North Korea for the rest of the year, but I don’t think tensions will escalate before the election. Trump will also not confront Putin despite continued Russian interference. His relationship with Putin will be a very big issue in the election, and not be a positive for him. World leaders helped by the pandemic in addition to Merkel include Trudeau in Canada. Macron remains weakened and Boris Johnson has been hurt by the UKs initial response to the pandemic, and while he will stay in office for now, his political future looks bleak.) Once again, the updated predictions turned out to be pretty good. Although the fate of many of these leaders really is a 2021 story. 

4 – The economy will do surprisingly well as overall trade tensions will ease with China, but it will again be up and down and progress will be slow (Trump will be very accommodating with his policies and rhetoric, recognizing that this is the only way he will win re-election). The U.S. Federal Reserve, while considering increasing interest rates, will remain neutral throughout the year so as not to be seen influencing the election. (The Fed will continue its proactive actions to prop up the economy in the face of the pandemic, but this will be in the form of additional asset purchases rather than interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The country will end the year in recession, as the recent flair-ups in the pandemic will slow economic growth and ensure that there is no v-shaped recovery.) Missed this one except the prediction on the Fed. The economy is not in recession, although things are looking worse heading into next year as the pandemic continues to take its toll. It does look like this will not be a normal v-shaped recovery.

3 – The stock market will also do better than expected, rising about 10% (S&P 500). There will be general relief that the Democratic candidates at the far left of the spectrum will not be on the ticket and again Trump will do everything he can to help boost the economy and to take credit. (The market will give back some of its recents gains over the rest of the year, but will not retest the March lows. While typically the market would fear the election of a Democrat, and one party winning the presidency and Congress, I believe the market will rally after the election on hope for a more unified country moving forward. The market will end the year down between 3% and 5% and will be volatile along the way. GDP growth will remain negative through the end of the year with debt levels growing to unprecedented levels.) While there was some volatility, and a little bit of a pullback, the performance of the stock market continued upward – surprising to me. GDP growth rebounded faster than I thought (although that may reverse) but debt levels continue to grow.

2 – It will be a quiet year for the financial services industry, as fewer mergers are apt to take place in an election year. The anti-finance rhetoric of the left will also be muffled after the Democratic nominee is decided. The first Bitcoin ETF will be approved in a surprising resurgence of the crypto-currency.(Other than the Schwab/TD merger, and the recent Orion/Brinker Capital merger, it has been a quiet year, but for different reasons than I had previously believed. No resurgence of Bitcoin. There will be a continued move to a cashless society in the face of the pandemic. Not much will happen the rest of the year as the election looms and companies in general do not want to make changes that might worry investors who are already on edge.) Bitcoin continues to amaze me as it hit a record level this week. I do think we will continue to see this move to cashless in the face of the pandemic (where people don’t want to touch physical things) and because of the work from home trend which will continue (more on that in the upcoming predictions).

1 – And turning to sports, I will try to redeem myself after two bad years in a row. LSU will win the NCAA Football National Championship. The Ravens will beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Louisville will win the NCAA Basketball Championship. The Washington Capitals will win the Stanley Cup, the Milwaukee Bucks will win the NBA Championship and the NY Yankees will rise again and win the World Series. (Not sure what to say here – although LSU did win. There will be no NCAA Basketball champion, and while I hate to say this, while the major league seasons will either start or restart soon, I am not convinced that they won’t be shuttered again and no champions crowned. I actually lean toward this being the case, as well as there being at best an abbreviated college football season. So no further predictions here – too much uncertainty. Big money talks, but at the end of the day if the players believe that their health is in danger then there is no way sports seasons can continue.) There have been many cancelations, but the sports have continued. The NBA pulled off its bubble. And I again pretty much missed the sports that did crown champions. I will try again next year!